It looks “exceptionally likely” that Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is writing the principal opinion for the court in the challenge to the Washington, D.C., law prohibiting possession of handguns, says Tom Goldstein, veteran court watcher writing on ScotusBlog. If correct, that would make it likely that the D.C. ban will be struck down, as the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled. Such a ruling could spell trouble for gun-control laws nationwide.
Goldstein’s conclusion is based on an analysis often used by high court insiders who examine which justices have authored opinions emerging from one of the court’s two-week argument sessions. The case was argued in March, and Scalia is the only justice not to hve written a majority opinion in a case heard during that two-week period. The court is likely to issue the gun opinion in the next few days.