How to Predict Crime


A new guide published by the Rand Corporation analyzes predictive policing techniques “to identify promising targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, and identifying potential offenders and victims.”

Predictive policing involves using statistical analysis to identify targets for police intervention.

The guide breaks down various predictive policing strategies into four categories: crime prediction, offender prediction, victim prediction and methods for predicting perpetrators’ identities.

While data analysis systems are often flashy — and can be quite expensive — the guide notes that small police departments are likely only need core statistical and display capabilities.

The guide also warns, “predictive policing methods are not a crystal ball: they cannot foretell the future. They can only identify people and locations at increased risk of crime.”

Read the guide HERE.

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